Hypothesis: There is a relationship between current computer and mobile cell phone usage in a digital learning community. It is believed that Mobile Learning (M-Learning) will make the most impact on digital learning over the next five years. M-Learning is a software program used to deliver training and informational content to remote participants through a mobile device’s web browser using an integrated App.
After reviewing the researched methods I decided to use extrapolation as the method to forecast the trend. Extrapolation, as applied to the human experience is used to project, extend, or expand known experience into an area not known or previously experienced so as to attain knowledge of the unknown. It is common knowledge that the computer with internet connection is extensively used in the digital learning community. With that in mind I researched publicly reported data on computers, cell phone usage, and other information. The targeted geographical area is the United States (U.S.). I compiled a list of questions and answers, relative data, and other facts from various internet searches (see references).
- What is the total population in the U.S.? 317,874,628
- What is the total number of cell phones in the U.S.? 327,577,529
- What is the total number of computer in the U.S.? 310,600,000
- What is the percentage of U.S. Adults with a cell phone? 90%
- What is the percentage of U.S. Adults with a smartphone? 58%
- What is the total internet usage in the U.S.? 279,834,232
44% of cell owners have slept with their phone next to their bed to make sure they didn’t miss anything
29% of cell owners describe their cell phone as “something they can’t imagine living without”
63% of adult cell owners use their phones to go online
34% of cell internet users go online on their phones, not some other device (desktop or laptop computer)
Analysis: The Extrapolation Method was applied and the results suggest that: (a) computer ownership and internet usage is the known experience; (b) cell phone usage as an alternate mode of content delivery in the digital learning community is the area not known or previously experienced; and (c) the attained knowledge is that M-Learning will likely grow in the next five year in the digital learning community. There are a great number of cell phones, computers, and internet users in the U.S. They are all being used on a daily basis. In the last couple of years the trend has been that the computer has been getting smaller in size. The cell phone is already small but it carries a lot of weight considering the information available within it. In some instances people used the cell phone for internet investigations more than they used the computer. For example, many people often use their cell phone to research things on the internet because the information is concise and includes a telephone number. They can easily call the business right from the website with 1 touch.
In conclusion, technology is the catalyst that is moving the digital learning community to grow in so many different and wonderful ways. Computers, cell phones, and the internet are all great inventions and there will be many more in the future. It is not a big leap to forecast that in the next five years people will be utilizing M-Learning as an option for their digital learning needs as well as other inventions.
Work Cited:
Armstrong, J.S. (1984). Forecasting by extrapolation: Conclusions from twenty-five years of research. Published in Interfaces, Volume 14, Issue 6, pages 52-66. Retrieved on March 14, 2015 from repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1083&context...
Gunaydin, H. M., Ph.D. The Delphi method. Retrieved on March 15, 2015 from http://web.iyte.edu.tr/~muratgunaydin/delphi.htm
http://www.educause.edu/library/mobile-learning
http://www.mapsofworld.com/world-top-ten/world-top-ten-personal-computers-users-map.html
https://www.otexts.org/fpp/3/5
http://www.pewinternet.org/fact-sheets/mobile-technology-fact-sheet/
http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users-by-country/
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_number_of_mobile_phones_in_use
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Technology_forecasting